Bitcoin Halving Incoming - The Potential Network Effects of The Halving Event
In less than two weeks, the most anticipated market event of the year for web3 will take place: the Bitcoin halving. This event, occurring at Block height 840,000, will halve the block reward from its current rate of 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins.
This reduction in new Bitcoin supply will further diminish the rate of Bitcoin dilution, potentially leading to substantial economic implications in terms of supply and demand. Given that Bitcoin mining companies often sell their mined bitcoins to cover operational costs, the halving will slash their revenue by half.
Consequently, negatively impacting their control of the market. According to economic principles, with the decrease in supply if the demand for Bitcoin remains constant, its price should increase, which explains the widespread discussion about this event.
However, the real question is whether these theoretical outcomes will materialize in reality. Alongside this, it's crucial to consider how the halving will influence the broader ecosystem, affecting other cryptocurrencies and DAOs.
What to expect during the halving ?
The upcoming Bitcoin halving is shrouded in uncertainty, with analysts divided on whether the event will cause the price to surge or plummet. One thing is certain: the market will experience significant volatility in the days surrounding the halving. The team at Wevr.ai has outlined several arguments to consider:
Points for an increase in price
- Shift in supply and demand dynamics
- Heightened attention from retail investors
- Reduction in mining power
Points against an increase in price
- The phenomenon of buying the rumour and selling the news
- Potential closure and liquidation of mining operations
- High expectations leading to disappointment
These factors offer a glimpse into the possible price dynamics during the halving. Examining previous halving events, such as the one on May 11th, 2020, reveals a pattern: a decrease in mining difficulty and a price dip just before the halving. For instance, Bitcoin's price fell from $9,790 on May 9th to $8,773 on May 11th, 2020 (Figure 1: Total difficulty May 2020).
A similar trend of decreasing mining difficulty is observable in recent weeks (Figure 2: Total difficulty April 2024), hinting at potential market behaviours.
What Network effects will be had because of the halving?
The halving is expected to send ripples through the entire web3 ecosystem, impacting DAOs and altcoins, which often have a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price. Particularly vulnerable are DAOs with reserves or investment funds in altcoins rather than stablecoins. Significant market movements could trigger widespread liquidations, leading to pronounced network effects, especially for unprepared investors.
This turbulence could encourage a strategic revaluation among stakeholders in the web3 space. For instance, entities might diversify their asset holdings or adopt more robust risk management strategies to mitigate the financial shockwaves of such volatility. Furthermore, the halving event could act as a litmus test for the resilience and adaptability of various blockchain projects and their governance structures. As the market reacts to the reduced Bitcoin supply, the interconnected nature of cryptocurrencies could lead to unforeseen challenges and opportunities, underlining the importance of preparedness and strategic foresight in the face of market uncertainties.
As the halving approaches, the cryptocurrency community is on the edge of its seat, eager to see how these dynamics will unfold. The next week is critical for gaining a clearer picture, but one thing is clear: these are thrilling times to be involved in the cryptocurrency market.
